CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-10-14T04:48:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-10-14T04:48ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27293/-1
CME Note: Slow partial halo CME in the NNW with the source a gradual eruption of a long filament stretched between 15 and 40 degrees longitude along the latitude of 36 degrees N. The eruption is marked by post-eruptive arcades and relatively minor dimming along the filament channel, as seen in AIA 193 and 304 starting after 2023-10-14T04Z. Regarding arrival signature from Tarik Mohammad, LASSOS team: there is a SIR signature early on 2023-10-18 - a shock driven by this SIR (marked by an increase in proton density, bulk speed, and ion temperature). There is likely no sheath region seen after the SIR signature: following the shock, you see the compression region with increased proton density, and bulk speed (the speed is gradually increasing and so is ion temperature). After that, we are in the high-speed stream with lower proton density and enhanced ion temperature.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.67
Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-10-18T07:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: -158.60 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2023-10-24T21:36Z
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